Policy Brief: “Preserving Independence: Building a Sustainable and Self-Reliant Ukrainian Economy

Policy Brief: “Preserving Independence: Building a Sustainable and Self-Reliant Ukrainian Economy

Politics, Philosophy and Law

Mariia Kulia

2025

This policy brief analyses Ukraine’s post-war recovery architecture and warns that a debt-heavy, donor-driven model could erode fiscal sovereignty. Drawing on a comparative dataset of 17 post-conflict cases, it identifies parallels with Ethiopia and Lebanon but highlights Vietnam’s export-led path as a viable alternative. The brief proposes nine actionable measures to safeguard sovereignty: reducing loan dependence, retiring GDP-linked warrants, ensuring transparent procurement, managing defence spending responsibly, re-sequencing reforms, and embedding transparency in international agreements. The recommendations aim to help Ukraine pursue independent, sustainable growth while maintaining donor confidence and EU alignment.

Ukraine reconstruction, Post-war Ukraine, Ukraine, policy autonomy, political independence, post-war economy, model, debt sustainability, IMF conditionality, EU Ukraine Facility, ODA loans, fiscal sovereignty, GDP-linked warrants, aid dependence, donor policy, export-led growth, defence spending, transparency, procurement reform, sovereignty impact assessment, economic independence, policy sequencing, sustainable development, reconstruction finance.