Labour Market Uncertainty and University Student Outcomes: Evidence from HESA Graduating Cohorts

Title

Labour Market Uncertainty and University Student Outcomes: Evidence from HESA Graduating Cohorts

Subject

Economics

Date

October 2026

Contributor

Marta Radian

Abstract

This paper examines whether labour market conditions are associated with university degree outcomes in UK higher education. Using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data on undergraduate, first degree classifications from 2006/07 to 2024/25, we analyse the relationship between graduating cohorts’ unemployment conditions during penultimate and final years of study, and the percentage of first degree qualifications awarded first class honours. We find a consistently negative relationship between unemployment and first-class attainment, with limited statistical significance nationally. The resulting association we estimate is stronger and statistically significant in subject-level analysis.

Meta Tags

Economics, Higher Education, Unemployment, UK Labour Market, Academic Outcomes

Files

Citation

Marta Radian, “Labour Market Uncertainty and University Student Outcomes: Evidence from HESA Graduating Cohorts,” URSS SHOWCASE, accessed October 14, 2026, https://urss.warwick.ac.uk/items/show/1131.